The Widespread Slowdown in Health Spending Growth Implications for Future Spending Projections and the Cost of the Affordable Care Act ACA Implementation

John Holahan, Stacey McMorrow

Despite considerable attention to the recent slowdown in health spending growth, there has been little focus on how this slowdown has changed future spending projections. This paper examines the national health spending projections from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and explores how those projections have changed over time. Current projections suggest that national health expenditures will be $2.5 trillion less over the 2014-2019 period than under the original Affordable Care Act (ACA) forecast from September 2010. We describe some of the factors that have contributed to the declining projections and consider the extent to which the ACA has played a role.

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